At the moment I am rather busy. Moving to a new place and house. The house still needs a lot of work. As a result, I do not have time to update this blog. Trading is still going on but on a shorter timeframe. Result is consistent now. AudUsd is very kind at the moment with no sudden movement.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.
RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.
2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.
3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.
4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.
Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Forex Trading Methods - Elliott Waves
What is Elliott Wave?
The Elliott Wave principle is a form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities, named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s, he proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott Waves. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that the movement of the financial market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. In fact, Elliott believed that all of man's activities, not just the financial market, were influenced by these identifiable series of waves.
Elliott based part of his work on the Dow Theory, which also defines price movement in terms of waves, but Elliott discovered the fractal nature of market action. Thus Elliott was able to analyze markets in greater depth, identifying the specific characteristics of wave patterns and making detailed market predictions based on the patterns he had identified.
In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott found that the markets exhibited certain repeated patterns. His primary research was with stock market data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This research identified patterns or waves that recur in the markets. Very simply, in the direction of the trend, expect five waves. Any corrections against the trend are in three waves. Three wave corrections are lettered as "a, b, c." These patterns can be seen in long-term as well as in short-term charts. Ideally, smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. In this sense, Elliott Waves are like a piece of broccoli, where the smaller piece, if broken off from the bigger piece, does, in fact, look like the big piece. This information (about smaller patterns fitting into bigger patterns), coupled with the Fibonacci relationships between the waves, offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for and identifying trading opportunities with solid reward/risk ratios.
There have been many theories about the origin and the meaning of the patterns that Elliott discovered, including human behavior and harmony in nature. These rules, though, as applied to technical analysis of the markets (stocks, commodities, futures, etc.), can be very useful regardless of their meaning and origin.
Theory Interpretation
The Elliott Wave Theory is interpreted as follows:
- Every action is followed by a reaction.
- Five waves move in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a 5-3 move).
- A 5-3 move completes a cycle.
- This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave.
- The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary.
Let's have a look at the following chart made up of eight waves (five up and three down) labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B and C.
You can see that the three waves in the direction of the trend are impulses, so these waves also have five waves within them. The waves against the trend are corrections and are composed of three waves.
Impulse Patterns
The impulse pattern consists of five waves. The five waves can be in either direction, up or down:
Wave 1 - Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower, the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
Wave 2 - Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.
Wave 3 - Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1 (also known as The Golden Ratio).
Wave 4 - Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, the most distinguishing feature of fourth waves is that they often prove very difficult to count.
Wave 5 - Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicator does not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed.
Corrective Patterns
Corrections are very hard to master. Most Elliott traders make money during an impulse pattern and then lose it back during the corrective phase.
Wave A - Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.
Wave B - Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
Wave C - Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
An impulse pattern consists of five waves. With the exception of the triangle, corrective patterns consist of 3 waves. An impulse pattern is always followed by a corrective pattern. Corrective patterns can be grouped into two different categories:
1. Simple Correction (Zig-Zag)
There is only one pattern in a simple correction. This pattern is called a Zig-Zag correction. A Zig-Zag correction is a three-wave pattern where the Wave B does not retrace more than 75 percent of Wave A. Wave C will make new lows below the end of Wave A. The Wave A of a Zig-Zag correction always has a five-wave pattern. In the other two types of corrections (Flat and Irregular), Wave A has a three-wave pattern. Thus, if you can identify a five-wave pattern inside Wave A of any correction, you can then expect the correction to turn out as a Zig-Zag formation.
2. Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle)
Flat Correction - In a Flat correction, the length of each wave is identical. After a five-wave impulse pattern, the market drops in Wave A. It then rallies in a Wave B to the previous high. Finally, the market drops one last time in Wave C to the previous Wave A low.
Irregular Correction - In this type of correction, Wave B makes a new high. The final Wave C may drop to the beginning of Wave A, or below it.
Triangle Correction - In addition to the three-wave correction patterns, there is another pattern that appears time and time again. It is called the Triangle pattern. Unlike other triangle studies, the Elliott Wave Triangle approach designates five sub-waves of a triangle as A, B, C, D and E in sequence. Triangles, by far, most commonly occur as fourth waves. One can sometimes see a triangle as the Wave B of a three-wave correction. Triangles are very tricky and confusing. One must study the pattern very carefully prior to taking action. Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust. When triangles occur in the fourth wave, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3. When triangles occur in Wave B, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as the Wave A.
Conclusion
The premise that markets unfold in recognizable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which says that prices cannot be predicted from market data such as moving averages and volume. By this reasoning, if successful market forecasts were possible, investors would buy (or sell) when the method predicted a price increase (or decrease), to the point that prices would rise (or fall) immediately, thus destroying the profitability and predictive power of the method. In efficient markets, knowledge of the Elliott wave principle among investors would lead to the disappearance of the very patterns they tried to anticipate, rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless.
Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgment of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed. Critics also say the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision. Some who advocate technical analysis of markets have questioned the value of Elliott wave analysis.
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story. The account is especially persuasive because Elliott Wave has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
The Elliott Wave principle is a form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities, named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s, he proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott Waves. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that the movement of the financial market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. In fact, Elliott believed that all of man's activities, not just the financial market, were influenced by these identifiable series of waves.
Elliott based part of his work on the Dow Theory, which also defines price movement in terms of waves, but Elliott discovered the fractal nature of market action. Thus Elliott was able to analyze markets in greater depth, identifying the specific characteristics of wave patterns and making detailed market predictions based on the patterns he had identified.
In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott found that the markets exhibited certain repeated patterns. His primary research was with stock market data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This research identified patterns or waves that recur in the markets. Very simply, in the direction of the trend, expect five waves. Any corrections against the trend are in three waves. Three wave corrections are lettered as "a, b, c." These patterns can be seen in long-term as well as in short-term charts. Ideally, smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. In this sense, Elliott Waves are like a piece of broccoli, where the smaller piece, if broken off from the bigger piece, does, in fact, look like the big piece. This information (about smaller patterns fitting into bigger patterns), coupled with the Fibonacci relationships between the waves, offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for and identifying trading opportunities with solid reward/risk ratios.
There have been many theories about the origin and the meaning of the patterns that Elliott discovered, including human behavior and harmony in nature. These rules, though, as applied to technical analysis of the markets (stocks, commodities, futures, etc.), can be very useful regardless of their meaning and origin.
Theory Interpretation
The Elliott Wave Theory is interpreted as follows:
- Every action is followed by a reaction.
- Five waves move in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a 5-3 move).
- A 5-3 move completes a cycle.
- This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave.
- The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary.
Let's have a look at the following chart made up of eight waves (five up and three down) labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, A, B and C.
You can see that the three waves in the direction of the trend are impulses, so these waves also have five waves within them. The waves against the trend are corrections and are composed of three waves.
Impulse Patterns
The impulse pattern consists of five waves. The five waves can be in either direction, up or down:
Wave 1 - Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower, the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
Wave 2 - Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.
Wave 3 - Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1 (also known as The Golden Ratio).
Wave 4 - Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, the most distinguishing feature of fourth waves is that they often prove very difficult to count.
Wave 5 - Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicator does not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed.
Corrective Patterns
Corrections are very hard to master. Most Elliott traders make money during an impulse pattern and then lose it back during the corrective phase.
Wave A - Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.
Wave B - Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
Wave C - Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
An impulse pattern consists of five waves. With the exception of the triangle, corrective patterns consist of 3 waves. An impulse pattern is always followed by a corrective pattern. Corrective patterns can be grouped into two different categories:
1. Simple Correction (Zig-Zag)
There is only one pattern in a simple correction. This pattern is called a Zig-Zag correction. A Zig-Zag correction is a three-wave pattern where the Wave B does not retrace more than 75 percent of Wave A. Wave C will make new lows below the end of Wave A. The Wave A of a Zig-Zag correction always has a five-wave pattern. In the other two types of corrections (Flat and Irregular), Wave A has a three-wave pattern. Thus, if you can identify a five-wave pattern inside Wave A of any correction, you can then expect the correction to turn out as a Zig-Zag formation.
2. Complex Corrections (Flat, Irregular, Triangle)
Flat Correction - In a Flat correction, the length of each wave is identical. After a five-wave impulse pattern, the market drops in Wave A. It then rallies in a Wave B to the previous high. Finally, the market drops one last time in Wave C to the previous Wave A low.
Irregular Correction - In this type of correction, Wave B makes a new high. The final Wave C may drop to the beginning of Wave A, or below it.
Triangle Correction - In addition to the three-wave correction patterns, there is another pattern that appears time and time again. It is called the Triangle pattern. Unlike other triangle studies, the Elliott Wave Triangle approach designates five sub-waves of a triangle as A, B, C, D and E in sequence. Triangles, by far, most commonly occur as fourth waves. One can sometimes see a triangle as the Wave B of a three-wave correction. Triangles are very tricky and confusing. One must study the pattern very carefully prior to taking action. Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust. When triangles occur in the fourth wave, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3. When triangles occur in Wave B, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as the Wave A.
Conclusion
The premise that markets unfold in recognizable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which says that prices cannot be predicted from market data such as moving averages and volume. By this reasoning, if successful market forecasts were possible, investors would buy (or sell) when the method predicted a price increase (or decrease), to the point that prices would rise (or fall) immediately, thus destroying the profitability and predictive power of the method. In efficient markets, knowledge of the Elliott wave principle among investors would lead to the disappearance of the very patterns they tried to anticipate, rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless.
Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgment of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed. Critics also say the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision. Some who advocate technical analysis of markets have questioned the value of Elliott wave analysis.
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story. The account is especially persuasive because Elliott Wave has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
EUR Interest Rate Decision Due Today
Market participants are eagerly awaiting key data pieces due be released today. The European Central Bank is expected to cut Interest Rates by 50 basis points and weekly U.S. unemployment numbers are predicted to be high. These two events will be the main drivers of currencies in the forex market today.
.bmp)
USD - U.S. Unemployment Claims on Tap
The U.S. Dollar weakened during yesterday's trading session, correcting the sharp gains against the EUR and GBP seen last week as steep job losses in the private sector rekindled fears of a prolonged U.S. recession. After yesterday, the USD fell slightly against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3270. The Dollar experienced similar behavior against the Pound and closed at 1.4490.
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change released yesterday showed an additional 742K individuals lost their jobs in the U.S during the month of March. The number was far higher than economists had previously forecasted. This is indeed another sign that any economic recovery in the U.S. will be slow to commence.
Another leading indicator released yesterday was U.S. Pending Home Sales. This number handedly beat market expectations but failed to provide strength to the Dollar as investors may be waiting for key data due to be released today to implement their trading strategies.
As for today, the leading U.S. data will be the Unemployment Claims. The survey is expected to show 649K individuals have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Such a result will be a direct continuation of the recent troublesome figures delivered lately from the U.S. economy and is threatening to hurt the USD. Traders should follow it closely, as any crucial information might ignite a new trend in the market.
EUR - EUR Fluctuates as ECB Interest Rate Decision due Today
The EUR finished yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The 15-nation currency saw moderate gains versus the USD. Versus the JPY, the Euro-Zone currency range-traded throughout most of the day, as much of the market data from yesterday was focused on the greenback.
Retail Sales in Germany unexpectedly fell in February and the rate of unemployment rose, fueling fears about job security. As a result, European companies have stepped up efforts to reduce production and cut jobs as the worst global slump since World War II. German business confidence fell to the lowest level in more than 26 years in March and unemployment increased for a fifth straight month.
As a result, the ECB is expected to cut its Interest Rates today while other governments embark on state-sponsored investment programs. The market may view the ECB action of a rate cut as a step to restore investor confidence, and to mitigate the economic fallout from the financial crisis.
In the last year, the ECB has been less aggressive than the Federal Reserve in monetary policy and as the financial crisis has worsened in Europe, the EUR has steadily fallen against the USD. However, the ECB plans for cutting Interest Rates might have an effect on the Euro-Zone economy and could reassure the European banking sector that they could rely on the ECB to keep liquidity circulating and also bring more confidence to the markets.
JPY - Yen Experiences Mixed Results against Major Currencies
Japan's business confidence hit a record low after slumping global demand has halved the nation's exports, pushing the country into one of its worst recessions. Rising unemployment and falling spending data a day earlier already showed the worrisome trend that the drop in external demand was affecting Japan's domestic economy. Analysts expect the Japanese economy to continue to contract in the first half of this year, lending a record five straight quarters of negative economic growth.
Today, the JPY will be absent from the economic calendar, however, traders should follow overseas events in order to determine the JPY's direction for today. Special attention should be given to the ECB Press Conference and U.S. Unemployment Claims figure that will be published at 11:45 and 12:30 GMT respectively, and will be today's leading publications that could affect the Yen's crosses.
OIL - Crude Oil Sinks below $49 a Barrel
Oil prices fell slightly during yesterday's trading session and closed below $49 a barrel as more signs of a sick economy fueled worries about energy consumption. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that Crude Oil inventories rose to 359.4 million barrels, which is 15.5% above levels from one year ago, the highest level since 1993. Some analysts have said Crude Oil is waiting to break out from it's price slump but the negative inventories data may have held that rally in check..
Oil prices rose sharply last month from $35 to above $54 taking their cue from a rally in equity markets. But a new sign of a prolonged recession which has crushed energy demand around the world is again pushing prices lower below the psychological price level of $50.
Article Source - EUR Interest Rate Decision Due Today
.bmp)
USD - U.S. Unemployment Claims on Tap
The U.S. Dollar weakened during yesterday's trading session, correcting the sharp gains against the EUR and GBP seen last week as steep job losses in the private sector rekindled fears of a prolonged U.S. recession. After yesterday, the USD fell slightly against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3270. The Dollar experienced similar behavior against the Pound and closed at 1.4490.
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change released yesterday showed an additional 742K individuals lost their jobs in the U.S during the month of March. The number was far higher than economists had previously forecasted. This is indeed another sign that any economic recovery in the U.S. will be slow to commence.
Another leading indicator released yesterday was U.S. Pending Home Sales. This number handedly beat market expectations but failed to provide strength to the Dollar as investors may be waiting for key data due to be released today to implement their trading strategies.
As for today, the leading U.S. data will be the Unemployment Claims. The survey is expected to show 649K individuals have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Such a result will be a direct continuation of the recent troublesome figures delivered lately from the U.S. economy and is threatening to hurt the USD. Traders should follow it closely, as any crucial information might ignite a new trend in the market.
EUR - EUR Fluctuates as ECB Interest Rate Decision due Today
The EUR finished yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The 15-nation currency saw moderate gains versus the USD. Versus the JPY, the Euro-Zone currency range-traded throughout most of the day, as much of the market data from yesterday was focused on the greenback.
Retail Sales in Germany unexpectedly fell in February and the rate of unemployment rose, fueling fears about job security. As a result, European companies have stepped up efforts to reduce production and cut jobs as the worst global slump since World War II. German business confidence fell to the lowest level in more than 26 years in March and unemployment increased for a fifth straight month.
As a result, the ECB is expected to cut its Interest Rates today while other governments embark on state-sponsored investment programs. The market may view the ECB action of a rate cut as a step to restore investor confidence, and to mitigate the economic fallout from the financial crisis.
In the last year, the ECB has been less aggressive than the Federal Reserve in monetary policy and as the financial crisis has worsened in Europe, the EUR has steadily fallen against the USD. However, the ECB plans for cutting Interest Rates might have an effect on the Euro-Zone economy and could reassure the European banking sector that they could rely on the ECB to keep liquidity circulating and also bring more confidence to the markets.
JPY - Yen Experiences Mixed Results against Major Currencies
Japan's business confidence hit a record low after slumping global demand has halved the nation's exports, pushing the country into one of its worst recessions. Rising unemployment and falling spending data a day earlier already showed the worrisome trend that the drop in external demand was affecting Japan's domestic economy. Analysts expect the Japanese economy to continue to contract in the first half of this year, lending a record five straight quarters of negative economic growth.
Today, the JPY will be absent from the economic calendar, however, traders should follow overseas events in order to determine the JPY's direction for today. Special attention should be given to the ECB Press Conference and U.S. Unemployment Claims figure that will be published at 11:45 and 12:30 GMT respectively, and will be today's leading publications that could affect the Yen's crosses.
OIL - Crude Oil Sinks below $49 a Barrel
Oil prices fell slightly during yesterday's trading session and closed below $49 a barrel as more signs of a sick economy fueled worries about energy consumption. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that Crude Oil inventories rose to 359.4 million barrels, which is 15.5% above levels from one year ago, the highest level since 1993. Some analysts have said Crude Oil is waiting to break out from it's price slump but the negative inventories data may have held that rally in check..
Oil prices rose sharply last month from $35 to above $54 taking their cue from a rally in equity markets. But a new sign of a prolonged recession which has crushed energy demand around the world is again pushing prices lower below the psychological price level of $50.
Article Source - EUR Interest Rate Decision Due Today
Thursday, March 12, 2009
ITS NOT THE SYSTEM
After more than 2 years of trading, I can tell you a story about forex system. Forex system is a way to trade to have higher chances of profit. Unfortunately not all forex system works. This is because its not the system that is not working. It is you.
What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.
You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?
You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.
I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.
What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.
You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?
You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.
I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
A DIFFICULT MARKET CONDITION
It is not looking particularly well for GBPUSD. In the other hand, EURUSD and AUDUSD is looking good for a long term trade. I am taking the long position. It may take a very long time to profit but looking at the chart from a technical view, EURUSD and AUDUSD is in a good position for a long term trading.
I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.
It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.
Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.
Good luck to us all.
I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.
It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.
Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.
Good luck to us all.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Complimentary eBook: Download the full 60-page Deflation Survival eBook now
Part 2 of Elliott Wave International’s expansive NEW Deflation Survival eBook is online now. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter's most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now – for free.
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Greetings,
We contacted you earlier this week to tell you about an exciting, free 60-page eBook our friends at Elliott Wave International have just put together.
The new eBook is compiled from Bob Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation.
Much like Prechter’s wildly popular Independent Investor eBook, this new Deflation Survival eBook will transform the way you think – about inflation and deflation.
Most financial experts were caught completely of guard by the real estate top in 2005. Many thought the Dow Industrials index would sour well beyond its 14,000 peak. Others saw weakness in U.S. stocks but said the dollar would also crash and hyperinflation would immediately ensue.
Only ONE analyst, that we know of, made the following forecasts:
- Real estate, stocks and commodities would all top.
- A monumental credit crisis would reduce lending and borrowing around the world.
- The dollar would rally.
- Deflation would reign across almost all asset classes.
That analyst’s name is Robert Prechter.
Prechter – a man who’s made the arduous journey from fame to outcast and back – has scoured his complete writings on deflation and compiled the most important into a special 60-page Deflation Survival eBook.
Until today, most of the forecasts and advice in this still-prescient eBook have been released only to Prechter’s faithful subscribers. Now the 60-page Deflation Survival eBook can be yours for free.
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009
UPDATE
This blog has not been regularly updated. This is due to internet connection problem. It has been months now and my internet connection is still not up to 100% fitness level. I can post text but I cannot upload pictures or any attachment. I even opted to use my office internet during the day for my uploads.
As for forex I am playing the short term game. 5 minute TF to be exact. It is much safer since my internet is not stable. Its a intraday system trading the 30 minute trend with a 5 minute signal for entry and exit. So far so good.
Actually the system is simple. It is based on MA and RSI only. Even trading is simple for me nowadays. It seems that experience changes me. I am no longer sitting in front of the PC hoping for miracle. There is no miracle in Forex. It is just knowledge and study so that the direction can be expected.
The longer I trade the more I understand. After all I am still learning with every trade. Now I understand how people can trade from candlestick alone. This is because the best indicator is not on the screen but in your head. Use your brain, the best indicator of all.
By the way just wanted to invite you to my flickr page. Just an old hobby given new life with a new DSLR A350. Now I have 3 camera, each one with its own unique features. Do check out my flicr page and tell me if you like my photography style. Just needed to find a model for my portrait shot.
Back to Forex its in ranging mode now but the daily chart is showing a weakness is trend. EU is a downtrend but is weakening at the moment. 30m chart is still showing a downtrend at the moment with 5m chart is supporting it. So for today the best bet is to short EU but watch out for the long term trade.
As for forex I am playing the short term game. 5 minute TF to be exact. It is much safer since my internet is not stable. Its a intraday system trading the 30 minute trend with a 5 minute signal for entry and exit. So far so good.
Actually the system is simple. It is based on MA and RSI only. Even trading is simple for me nowadays. It seems that experience changes me. I am no longer sitting in front of the PC hoping for miracle. There is no miracle in Forex. It is just knowledge and study so that the direction can be expected.
The longer I trade the more I understand. After all I am still learning with every trade. Now I understand how people can trade from candlestick alone. This is because the best indicator is not on the screen but in your head. Use your brain, the best indicator of all.
By the way just wanted to invite you to my flickr page. Just an old hobby given new life with a new DSLR A350. Now I have 3 camera, each one with its own unique features. Do check out my flicr page and tell me if you like my photography style. Just needed to find a model for my portrait shot.
Back to Forex its in ranging mode now but the daily chart is showing a weakness is trend. EU is a downtrend but is weakening at the moment. 30m chart is still showing a downtrend at the moment with 5m chart is supporting it. So for today the best bet is to short EU but watch out for the long term trade.
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